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The European Central Bank is urging caution against excessive policy responses to the euro zone's current below-target inflation, with one of its top officials predicting a natural rebound in price growth.
In an exclusive interview with Reuters, ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic argued that the central bank shouldn't attempt "precision surgery" on minor inflation fluctuations after cutting rates for the eighth consecutive month. While Thursday's rate reduction came alongside projections showing inflation at just 1.6% for next year - below the ECB's 2% target - Vujcic believes temporary factors are at play.
"A few tens of basis points' deviation on either side of the target is not a problem," stated Croatia's central bank governor during Saturday's interview in Dubrovnik. "Because you will always have small deviations. If you consider them as a problem, then you will overreact."
The policymaker pointed to several factors likely to push inflation back toward target levels: stabilizing energy prices after their recent decline, accelerating economic activity across the euro area, and limited impact from currency fluctuations unless they persist long-term.
While some colleagues like Portugal's Mario Centeno express concerns about inflation slowing too dramatically, Vujcic currently sees balanced risks - though he acknowledged "complete uncertainty" surrounding potential trade tensions under U.S. President Donald Trump.
Historical Perspectives on Inflation Management
The Croatian governor shared insights from his early career when former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan advised him that high inflation poses greater dangers than low readings. He referenced late-19th century periods where productivity gains accompanied benign deflation without economic disruption.
"Nobody cared about low inflation because of productivity growth," Vujcic observed. "You might have monetary policy tools to lift it...but why insist so much if there isn't an underlying economic problem?"
QE Debate Intensifies Ahead of Strategy Review
The ECB faces critical decisions about its long-term approach as it prepares this summer's strategy update - particularly regarding quantitative easing (QE). The institution pumped approximately €7 trillion ($8 trillion) into markets through asset purchases and other measures over the past decade.
"The next time around...the bar for QE would be higher," predicted Vujcic, noting diminishing returns when such programs extend for years attempting solely to boost inflation rather than addressing market dysfunction during crises like COVID-19 or the financial crash.
While these reflections align with more conservative ECB policymakers' views, sources indicate they're unlikely to significantly influence this summer's official strategy document release as internal debates continue shaping Europe's monetary future.
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